Pair #788

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-AHAD

Will Adam Hadwin win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 71402

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2314

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:16Z

Reasoning: Winning means finishing 1st, which is necessarily top 10. A top 10 finish does not imply a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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