Pair #7876

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-ROM

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 23897

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMAC

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9534

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:20Z

Reasoning: If MacIntyre finishes top 5, he necessarily made the cut. The reverse does not hold — he could make the cut but finish outside the top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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