Pair #7872

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-ROM

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 50629

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMAC

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9534

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:20Z

Reasoning: If MacIntyre finishes top 20, he must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — he could make the cut but finish outside the top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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