Pair #787

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-AHAD

Will Adam Hadwin win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 71402

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:16Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament requires completing all rounds, which means making the cut. Making the cut does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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