Pair #7864

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 170522

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9770
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-RMAC

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 322

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:01Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 means finishing 1st after Round 1, which is necessarily within the top 5. However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not mean being the outright leader (could be tied 2nd-5th).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1070
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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