Pair #7860

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMAC

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 9534

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:01Z

Reasoning: MacIntyre could win a different major (not the Masters) in 2026, so winning a major does not necessitate making the cut at the Masters. Making the cut at the Masters doesn't imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -23.18% BELOW HURDLE

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