Pair #7859

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 170522

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9770
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:01Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters from behind). Leading after Round 1 doesn't imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -2.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0150
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -6.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue