Pair #7858

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-ROM

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 50629

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:01Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship — not necessarily the Masters. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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