Pair #7857

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-ROM

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22041

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:01Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a different major than the Masters, so it doesn't necessitate a top 10 at the Masters. And finishing top 10 at the Masters doesn't mean winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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