Pair #7856

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-RMAC

The Masters: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 322

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:18:01Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or could win the Masters without being top 5 after Round 1). And finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.93% BELOW HURDLE

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