Pair #785

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-AHAD

Will Adam Hadwin lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 593

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:16Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could still miss the cut after Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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