Pair #7845

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17455

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 11356

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:41Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at the PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open — not necessarily the Masters. So winning a major does not imply being top European at the Masters. And being top European at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.69% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +3.38% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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