Pair #7844

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-TFLE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5236

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 11356

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:41Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not logically necessitate being the top European at the Masters — another European could finish higher. And being the top European at the Masters does not require finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -4.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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