Pair #7841

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 57359

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JSPI

The Masters: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 14255

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:19Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Masters requires making the cut. You cannot finish in the top 5 without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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