Pair #7839

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 82409

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JSPI

The Masters: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 14255

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:19Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at the Masters requires making the cut. You cannot finish in the top 10 without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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