Pair #7837

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 141398

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JSPI

The Masters: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 14255

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:19Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Masters requires having made the cut. You cannot achieve a top 20 finish without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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