Pair #7835

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JSPI

The Masters: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 14255

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at the PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open — none of which require making the cut at the Masters. And making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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