Pair #7834

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 328564

YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0230

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters (he could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R1). Leading after R1 at the Masters does not imply winning a major. No logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9930
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.08% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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