Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JSPI
The Masters: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 14255
YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:19Z
Reasoning: If Spieth finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have made the cut at the Masters. You cannot finish top 10 without making the cut. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.62%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9300
Days to maturity:
43
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
-103.81%
BELOW HURDLE