Pair #783

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2314

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Hadwin finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1462

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Hadwin finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:16Z

Reasoning: Top 10 is a subset of top 20, so a top 10 finish necessarily implies a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish could be outside the top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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