Pair #7825

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10138

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 116310

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:17:00Z

Reasoning: A top-5 finish necessarily implies a top-20 finish. The reverse does not hold — a top-20 finish could be positions 6-20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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