Pair #782

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1462

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Hadwin finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Hadwin makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:09:16Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing the tournament, which means making the cut. Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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