Pair #7818

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10138

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:44Z

Reasoning: Henley could win a major other than the Masters, so winning a major doesn't necessitate top 5 at the Masters. Top 5 at the Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -27.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue