Pair #7817

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 129080

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:44Z

Reasoning: Winning any major doesn't require leading after Round 1 at the Masters. Leading after Round 1 at the Masters doesn't imply winning a major. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 2.27% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9870
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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