Pair #7816

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 36385

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:44Z

Reasoning: Henley could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open), so winning a major doesn't necessitate a top-10 at the Masters. Top 10 at Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -54.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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