Pair #7814

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RHEN

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10138

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors requires top 10 at Masters, but not necessarily top 5. Top 5 at Masters doesn't imply top 10 in all 4 majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -70.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -74.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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