Pair #7813

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RHEN

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 129080

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors doesn't require leading after Round 1 at the Masters. Leading after Round 1 doesn't imply top-10 finishes in all majors. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.41% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0170
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -14.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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