Pair #7812

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RHEN

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 36385

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in ALL 4 majors necessarily includes finishing top 10 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold — top 10 at Masters alone doesn't mean top 10 in all 4.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: 39
Hurdle yield: 4.18%
Excess yield: -102.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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