Pair #7808

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RHEN

Will Russell Henley win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3836117

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

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Rules

If Russell Henley wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 36385

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Russell Henley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:44Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 doesn't mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5350
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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