Pair #7806

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 465054

YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10783

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:22Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 20 after Round 1 (he is 1st). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 in Round 1 does not require being the leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5290
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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