Pair #7804

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1707

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10783

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:22Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes in the top 5 of Round 1, he is necessarily also in the top 20 of Round 1. Top 5 is a subset of top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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