Pair #7802

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 465054

YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1707

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:16:22Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 5 (and top 1) after Round 1. However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not require being the outright leader — he could be tied or just inside top 5 without leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1390
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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