Pair #780

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-AHAD

Will Adam Hadwin lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 593

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-AHAD

Valspar Championship: Will Adam Hadwin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Hadwin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1462

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Hadwin finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:58Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall and leading after Round 1 are independent outcomes. Neither logically necessitates the other in any direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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