Pair #7792

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 119626

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2700
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 16835

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 20 at the Masters, he must have made the cut — you cannot achieve a top-20 final finish without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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