Pair #779

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5897

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-STHE

Valspar Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12005

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:58Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical relationship to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, which is a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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