Pair #7789

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10783

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require a top-20 Round 1 at the Masters (could win a different major entirely). A top-20 Round 1 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -49.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -54.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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