Pair #7788

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 16835

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require making the cut at the Masters specifically — he could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open). Making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.99% BELOW HURDLE

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