Pair #7787

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 465054

YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 at the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters from behind). Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning any major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 4.25% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9760
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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