Pair #7786

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1707

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require a top-5 Round 1 at the Masters (he could win a different major, or win the Masters after a slow start). A top-5 Round 1 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -16.38% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -20.66% BELOW HURDLE

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