Pair #7785

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10783

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require a top-20 Round 1 at the Masters (a player could start poorly and recover, or the top-10 final finish could coexist with a Round 1 outside top 20). And a top-20 Round 1 does not guarantee top-10 finishes in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -89.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -94.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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