Pair #7784

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 16835

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have made the cut at the Masters (you cannot finish top 10 overall without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue