Pair #7784

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 18947

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 16835

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have made the cut at the Masters (you cannot finish top 10 overall without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7500 + ~$0.0131 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T15:21:22Z

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