Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456
YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-XSCH
Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 465054
YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 at the Masters, and leading after Round 1 at the Masters does not guarantee a top-10 finish in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
104.57%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.8960
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
+100.36%
PROFITABLE