Pair #7783

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 465054

YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:59Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 at the Masters, and leading after Round 1 at the Masters does not guarantee a top-10 finish in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 104.57% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8960
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +100.36% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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