Pair #7782

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-XSCH

The Masters: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1707

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:15:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors relates to final tournament standings, not Round 1 standings. A top 10 final finish at the Masters does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish, and a top 5 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 10 final finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -22.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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