Pair #778

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-STHE

Valspar Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12005

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-STHE

Valspar Championship: Will Sahith Theegala make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 576

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:58Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish — a player can make the cut and finish outside the top 10. And top 10 implies making the cut but that direction (top 10 → make cut) does hold. However, checking: if top 10, then made cut (yes, logically necessary). If made cut, top 10 not guaranteed.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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