Pair #777

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5897

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-STHE

Valspar Championship: Will Sahith Theegala make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 576

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:58Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical relationship to winning a major in 2026, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -16.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -20.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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