Pair #7755

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4121

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 265561

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:55Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading round 1 of the Masters, and leading round 1 of the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9970
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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