Pair #7754

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4121

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-VIH

The Masters: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 47158

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:55Z

Reasoning: Hovland could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) without finishing top 20 at the Masters. And finishing top 20 at the Masters doesn't mean winning any major. No necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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