Pair #7749

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3769

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3383

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:55Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy finishes in the top 10 in round 1, he necessarily also finishes in the top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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