Pair #7746

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAAGECUT-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy be the oldest golfer to make the cut?

Series: KXPGAAGECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T09:00:00Z
Volume: 8670

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the oldest golfer to make the cut in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 27638

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:36Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy is the oldest golfer to make the cut, he must have made the cut — that is a prerequisite embedded in the event definition. However, making the cut does not imply he is the oldest to do so. So KXPGAAGECUT-MAST26-RMCI implies KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-RMCI.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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