Pair #7744

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 362347

YES ask: 0.0370
NO ask: 0.9680
Last: 0.0370

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-RMCI

The Masters: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3383

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:14:36Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy leads after Round 1 (outright or tied), he is necessarily within the top 20 after Round 1. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 in R1 does not imply leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5080
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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